Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →82.4%
Manchester City
11.8%
Draw
5.8%
Dudley Town
Expected Goals (xG)
2.74
Manchester City
vs
0.59
Dudley Town
Markets
BTTS41.8%
Over 0.596.6%
Over 1.584.4%
Over 2.564.8%
Over 3.542.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
13.4%
3-0
12.2%
1-0
9.9%
4-0
8.4%
2-1
7.9%
3-1
7.3%
1-1
5.6%
4-1
5.0%
5-0
4.6%
0-0
3.4%
5-1
2.7%
2-2
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).