Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →56.7%
Guimaraes
22.8%
Draw
20.5%
Estrela
Expected Goals (xG)
1.72
Guimaraes
vs
0.92
Estrela
Markets
BTTS48.8%
Over 0.593.3%
Over 1.573.4%
Over 2.549.0%
Over 3.527.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.8%
1-1
10.8%
2-0
10.6%
2-1
9.7%
0-1
7.1%
0-0
6.7%
3-0
6.0%
3-1
5.5%
1-2
5.2%
2-2
4.5%
0-2
3.0%
4-0
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).