Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →43.5%
Alverca
29.0%
Draw
27.4%
Rio Ave
Expected Goals (xG)
1.35
Alverca
vs
1.01
Rio Ave
Markets
BTTS47.9%
Over 0.589.8%
Over 1.569.1%
Over 2.542.0%
Over 3.521.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.7%
1-0
11.9%
0-0
10.2%
0-1
8.8%
2-1
8.7%
2-0
8.6%
1-2
6.5%
0-2
4.9%
2-2
4.4%
3-1
3.9%
3-0
3.8%
1-3
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).