Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →41.8%
Arouca
25.8%
Draw
32.4%
Nacional
Expected Goals (xG)
1.62
Arouca
vs
1.40
Nacional
Markets
BTTS61.3%
Over 0.594.3%
Over 1.581.3%
Over 2.558.2%
Over 3.535.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.9%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
7.8%
1-0
7.0%
2-0
6.4%
2-2
6.3%
0-1
6.0%
0-0
5.7%
3-1
4.8%
0-2
4.8%
1-3
3.6%
3-0
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).