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HHT: 21CSV

24 Mar 2018

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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44.1%
Exeter
26.0%
Draw
29.9%
Swindon

Expected Goals (xG)

1.37

Exeter

vs
1.07

Swindon

Markets

BTTS48.6%
Over 0.591.8%
Over 1.569.6%
Over 2.544.1%
Over 3.523.0%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
12.4%
1-1
12.3%
0-1
9.8%
2-1
8.8%
0-0
8.2%
2-0
8.2%
1-2
6.8%
0-2
5.0%
2-2
4.7%
3-1
4.0%
3-0
3.7%
1-3
2.4%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).