Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.1%
Exeter
26.0%
Draw
29.9%
Swindon
Expected Goals (xG)
1.37
Exeter
vs
1.07
Swindon
Markets
BTTS48.6%
Over 0.591.8%
Over 1.569.6%
Over 2.544.1%
Over 3.523.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.4%
1-1
12.3%
0-1
9.8%
2-1
8.8%
0-0
8.2%
2-0
8.2%
1-2
6.8%
0-2
5.0%
2-2
4.7%
3-1
4.0%
3-0
3.7%
1-3
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).