Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →9.1%
Burnley
18.3%
Draw
72.7%
Arsenal
Expected Goals (xG)
0.78
Burnley
vs
2.43
Arsenal
Markets
BTTS50.7%
Over 0.594.9%
Over 1.584.2%
Over 2.562.4%
Over 3.540.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
11.8%
0-3
9.6%
1-2
9.3%
1-1
8.7%
0-1
8.7%
1-3
7.5%
0-4
5.8%
0-0
5.1%
1-4
4.6%
2-2
3.7%
2-1
3.0%
2-3
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).