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AHT: 12CSV

23 Apr 2016

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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19.9%
Morecambe
26.1%
Draw
54.0%
Stevenage

Expected Goals (xG)

0.74

Morecambe

vs
1.43

Stevenage

Markets

BTTS39.5%
Over 0.589.2%
Over 1.563.5%
Over 2.537.2%
Over 3.517.7%

Most Likely Scorelines

0-1
16.7%
0-2
11.6%
1-1
11.6%
0-0
10.8%
1-0
8.9%
1-2
8.7%
0-3
5.6%
2-1
4.5%
1-3
4.1%
2-2
3.2%
2-0
3.1%
0-4
2.0%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).