Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →34.8%
Union Berlin
30.3%
Draw
34.9%
Mainz
Expected Goals (xG)
1.15
Union Berlin
vs
1.16
Mainz
Markets
BTTS47.8%
Over 0.589.0%
Over 1.568.1%
Over 2.540.6%
Over 3.520.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.2%
0-0
11.0%
0-1
10.5%
1-0
10.5%
1-2
7.7%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
6.6%
2-0
6.6%
2-2
4.4%
1-3
2.9%
3-1
2.9%
0-3
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).