Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →25.6%
Exeter
28.4%
Draw
46.0%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
0.78
Exeter
vs
1.16
Derby
Markets
BTTS36.1%
Over 0.586.7%
Over 1.556.7%
Over 2.530.7%
Over 3.513.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
17.8%
0-0
13.3%
1-0
12.2%
1-1
11.9%
0-2
9.7%
1-2
7.6%
2-1
5.0%
2-0
4.3%
0-3
3.8%
2-2
2.9%
1-3
2.9%
3-1
1.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).