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04 Jan 2025 · 18:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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55.2%
Benfica
24.1%
Draw
20.7%
Sp Braga

Expected Goals (xG)

1.83

Benfica

vs
1.04

Sp Braga

Markets

BTTS55.0%
Over 0.593.7%
Over 1.578.8%
Over 2.554.8%
Over 3.532.5%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
11.4%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
9.7%
2-0
9.5%
0-0
6.3%
3-1
6.0%
3-0
5.8%
1-2
5.6%
0-1
5.2%
2-2
5.1%
3-2
3.1%
0-2
3.1%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).