Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →15.6%
Lugo
22.2%
Draw
62.2%
Castellon
Expected Goals (xG)
0.77
Lugo
vs
1.81
Castellon
Markets
BTTS44.9%
Over 0.592.6%
Over 1.572.9%
Over 2.547.8%
Over 3.526.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
13.8%
0-2
12.4%
1-1
10.5%
1-2
9.6%
0-3
7.5%
0-0
7.4%
1-0
5.9%
1-3
5.8%
2-1
4.1%
2-2
3.7%
0-4
3.4%
1-4
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).