Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →60.4%
Ath Madrid
24.0%
Draw
15.6%
Ath Bilbao
Expected Goals (xG)
1.71
Ath Madrid
vs
0.74
Ath Bilbao
Markets
BTTS43.1%
Over 0.591.2%
Over 1.570.5%
Over 2.544.4%
Over 3.523.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.5%
2-0
12.6%
1-1
11.1%
2-1
9.3%
0-0
8.8%
3-0
7.2%
0-1
6.1%
3-1
5.3%
1-2
4.0%
2-2
3.5%
4-0
3.1%
0-2
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).