Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →72.3%
Malaga
18.6%
Draw
9.0%
Lugo
Expected Goals (xG)
2.02
Malaga
vs
0.55
Lugo
Markets
BTTS36.4%
Over 0.592.4%
Over 1.572.5%
Over 2.547.3%
Over 3.525.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
15.7%
1-0
15.6%
3-0
10.5%
2-1
8.6%
1-1
8.4%
0-0
7.6%
3-1
5.8%
4-0
5.3%
0-1
4.3%
4-1
2.9%
2-2
2.3%
1-2
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).