Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →86.7%
Porto
9.5%
Draw
3.7%
Arouca
Expected Goals (xG)
2.88
Porto
vs
0.45
Arouca
Markets
BTTS34.1%
Over 0.596.6%
Over 1.584.4%
Over 2.564.8%
Over 3.542.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
14.8%
3-0
14.2%
1-0
10.5%
4-0
10.3%
2-1
6.7%
3-1
6.4%
5-0
5.9%
4-1
4.6%
1-1
4.4%
0-0
3.4%
5-1
2.7%
0-1
1.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).