Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →34.1%
Estrela
26.0%
Draw
39.9%
Nacional
Expected Goals (xG)
1.17
Estrela
vs
1.30
Nacional
Markets
BTTS49.6%
Over 0.592.1%
Over 1.570.1%
Over 2.544.9%
Over 3.523.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.3%
0-1
11.5%
1-0
10.5%
1-2
8.3%
0-0
7.9%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
7.1%
2-0
5.8%
2-2
4.9%
1-3
3.6%
0-3
3.1%
3-1
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).