Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →61.4%
Nacional
24.5%
Draw
14.0%
Boavista
Expected Goals (xG)
1.76
Nacional
vs
0.72
Boavista
Markets
BTTS43.4%
Over 0.590.8%
Over 1.571.7%
Over 2.545.2%
Over 3.523.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.9%
2-0
12.9%
1-1
11.4%
2-1
9.3%
0-0
9.2%
3-0
7.6%
3-1
5.5%
0-1
5.2%
1-2
3.8%
2-2
3.4%
4-0
3.3%
4-1
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).