Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →32.1%
Northampton
26.5%
Draw
41.4%
Luton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.03
Northampton
vs
1.21
Luton
Markets
BTTS44.0%
Over 0.590.4%
Over 1.564.3%
Over 2.538.7%
Over 3.518.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
14.0%
1-1
12.2%
1-0
12.1%
0-0
9.6%
1-2
8.0%
0-2
7.8%
2-1
6.8%
2-0
5.6%
2-2
4.1%
1-3
3.2%
0-3
3.2%
3-1
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).