Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →83.3%
Porto
13.4%
Draw
3.4%
Tondela
Expected Goals (xG)
2.24
Porto
vs
0.26
Tondela
Markets
BTTS20.2%
Over 0.592.0%
Over 1.571.0%
Over 2.545.5%
Over 3.524.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
20.6%
1-0
18.7%
3-0
15.4%
4-0
8.6%
0-0
8.0%
2-1
5.3%
1-1
4.6%
3-1
4.0%
5-0
3.8%
0-1
2.3%
4-1
2.2%
5-1
1.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).