Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →66.3%
Ath Madrid
21.9%
Draw
11.8%
Valencia
Expected Goals (xG)
1.86
Ath Madrid
vs
0.64
Valencia
Markets
BTTS40.4%
Over 0.591.5%
Over 1.571.8%
Over 2.545.8%
Over 3.524.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.9%
2-0
14.2%
1-1
10.1%
2-1
9.1%
3-0
8.8%
0-0
8.5%
3-1
5.7%
0-1
4.9%
4-0
4.1%
1-2
3.1%
2-2
2.9%
4-1
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).