Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →47.2%
Almeria
26.6%
Draw
26.3%
Burgos
Expected Goals (xG)
1.42
Almeria
vs
0.98
Burgos
Markets
BTTS47.3%
Over 0.591.1%
Over 1.569.1%
Over 2.543.1%
Over 3.522.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.0%
1-1
12.5%
2-0
9.1%
0-1
9.0%
2-1
9.0%
0-0
8.9%
1-2
6.2%
2-2
4.4%
0-2
4.4%
3-0
4.3%
3-1
4.2%
3-2
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).