Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →76.3%
Porto
17.1%
Draw
6.6%
Nacional
Expected Goals (xG)
2.01
Porto
vs
0.40
Nacional
Markets
BTTS28.2%
Over 0.591.4%
Over 1.569.2%
Over 2.543.4%
Over 3.522.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
18.3%
2-0
18.1%
3-0
12.2%
0-0
8.6%
2-1
7.3%
1-1
6.9%
4-0
6.1%
3-1
4.9%
0-1
3.9%
5-0
2.5%
4-1
2.5%
2-2
1.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).