Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →52.9%
Arouca
24.3%
Draw
22.8%
Rio Ave
Expected Goals (xG)
1.86
Arouca
vs
1.16
Rio Ave
Markets
BTTS58.7%
Over 0.594.3%
Over 1.581.2%
Over 2.558.1%
Over 3.535.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.4%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.4%
1-0
8.3%
1-2
6.1%
3-1
6.1%
0-0
5.7%
2-2
5.7%
3-0
5.2%
0-1
4.9%
3-2
3.5%
0-2
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).