Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →20.7%
Barnsley
27.3%
Draw
51.9%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
0.89
Barnsley
vs
1.55
Derby
Markets
BTTS47.2%
Over 0.590.4%
Over 1.570.8%
Over 2.544.0%
Over 3.522.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.9%
0-1
12.7%
0-2
10.5%
0-0
9.6%
1-2
9.3%
1-0
6.9%
0-3
5.4%
2-1
5.3%
1-3
4.8%
2-2
4.1%
2-0
3.4%
2-3
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).