Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →8.7%
Southampton
18.1%
Draw
73.2%
Brentford
Expected Goals (xG)
0.77
Southampton
vs
2.44
Brentford
Markets
BTTS50.0%
Over 0.594.9%
Over 1.584.1%
Over 2.562.2%
Over 3.540.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
12.0%
0-3
9.8%
1-2
9.2%
0-1
8.8%
1-1
8.6%
1-3
7.5%
0-4
6.0%
0-0
5.1%
1-4
4.6%
2-2
3.5%
0-5
2.9%
2-1
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).