Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →70.6%
Barcelona
15.9%
Draw
13.4%
Villarreal
Expected Goals (xG)
2.76
Barcelona
vs
1.16
Villarreal
Markets
BTTS64.6%
Over 0.597.9%
Over 1.590.4%
Over 2.575.0%
Over 3.555.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
8.8%
3-1
8.1%
2-0
7.5%
3-0
6.9%
1-1
6.5%
4-1
5.6%
1-0
5.3%
2-2
5.1%
4-0
4.8%
3-2
4.7%
1-2
3.7%
4-2
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).