Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →90.2%
Sp Lisbon
7.2%
Draw
2.6%
Alverca
Expected Goals (xG)
3.25
Sp Lisbon
vs
0.43
Alverca
Markets
BTTS33.2%
Over 0.597.6%
Over 1.588.0%
Over 2.571.0%
Over 3.550.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0
14.5%
2-0
13.4%
4-0
11.8%
1-0
8.4%
5-0
7.6%
3-1
6.2%
2-1
5.7%
4-1
5.0%
1-1
3.4%
5-1
3.3%
0-0
2.4%
3-2
1.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).