Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →52.3%
Vitória Guimarães
27.9%
Draw
19.8%
Alverca
Expected Goals (xG)
1.51
Vitória Guimarães
vs
0.84
Alverca
Markets
BTTS45.1%
Over 0.589.5%
Over 1.569.0%
Over 2.541.7%
Over 3.521.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.5%
1-1
13.0%
2-0
10.9%
0-0
10.5%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
7.0%
3-0
5.5%
1-2
5.0%
3-1
4.6%
2-2
3.8%
0-2
3.3%
4-0
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).