Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →46.6%
Santa Clara
32.4%
Draw
21.0%
Alverca
Expected Goals (xG)
1.19
Santa Clara
vs
0.71
Alverca
Markets
BTTS36.4%
Over 0.584.1%
Over 1.557.7%
Over 2.529.8%
Over 3.512.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.8%
0-0
15.9%
1-1
13.6%
2-0
10.6%
0-1
9.6%
2-1
7.5%
1-2
4.5%
3-0
4.2%
0-2
3.8%
3-1
3.0%
2-2
2.7%
4-0
1.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).