Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →73.0%
Porto
21.1%
Draw
5.9%
Santa Clara
Expected Goals (xG)
1.82
Porto
vs
0.35
Santa Clara
Markets
BTTS25.4%
Over 0.588.0%
Over 1.564.4%
Over 2.537.0%
Over 3.517.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
20.2%
2-0
18.9%
0-0
12.0%
3-0
11.4%
1-1
7.9%
2-1
6.6%
4-0
5.2%
3-1
4.0%
0-1
3.5%
5-0
1.9%
4-1
1.8%
1-2
1.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).