Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →51.6%
Derby
27.9%
Draw
20.6%
Portsmouth
Expected Goals (xG)
1.51
Derby
vs
0.86
Portsmouth
Markets
BTTS45.7%
Over 0.589.7%
Over 1.569.2%
Over 2.542.1%
Over 3.521.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.3%
1-1
13.0%
2-0
10.7%
0-0
10.3%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
7.2%
3-0
5.3%
1-2
5.2%
3-1
4.6%
2-2
3.9%
0-2
3.5%
4-0
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).