Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →39.4%
Vallecano
31.1%
Draw
29.6%
Ath Bilbao
Expected Goals (xG)
1.12
Vallecano
vs
0.93
Ath Bilbao
Markets
BTTS41.4%
Over 0.586.7%
Over 1.561.4%
Over 2.533.8%
Over 3.515.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.9%
1-1
13.9%
0-0
13.3%
0-1
11.5%
2-0
8.1%
2-1
7.5%
1-2
6.3%
0-2
5.6%
2-2
3.5%
3-0
3.0%
3-1
2.8%
1-3
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).