Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →82.5%
Sp Lisbon
12.1%
Draw
5.4%
Guimaraes
Expected Goals (xG)
2.61
Sp Lisbon
vs
0.51
Guimaraes
Markets
BTTS36.9%
Over 0.595.9%
Over 1.581.6%
Over 2.560.5%
Over 3.538.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
15.0%
3-0
13.0%
1-0
11.7%
4-0
8.5%
2-1
7.7%
3-1
6.7%
1-1
5.6%
5-0
4.5%
4-1
4.4%
0-0
4.1%
0-1
2.5%
5-1
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).