Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →25.2%
Alaves
28.1%
Draw
46.6%
Villarreal
Expected Goals (xG)
0.95
Alaves
vs
1.39
Villarreal
Markets
BTTS46.4%
Over 0.589.9%
Over 1.568.1%
Over 2.541.3%
Over 3.520.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.2%
0-1
13.0%
0-0
10.1%
0-2
9.3%
1-2
8.8%
1-0
8.7%
2-1
6.0%
2-0
4.3%
0-3
4.3%
2-2
4.2%
1-3
4.1%
2-3
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).