Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →58.1%
Guimaraes
25.3%
Draw
16.6%
Tondela
Expected Goals (xG)
1.48
Guimaraes
vs
0.64
Tondela
Markets
BTTS36.1%
Over 0.588.6%
Over 1.562.2%
Over 2.535.7%
Over 3.516.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
18.2%
2-0
13.1%
0-0
11.4%
1-1
10.9%
2-1
8.4%
0-1
8.2%
3-0
6.5%
3-1
4.2%
1-2
3.6%
2-2
2.7%
0-2
2.5%
4-0
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).