Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →30.7%
Newcastle
27.4%
Draw
41.9%
Manchester City
Expected Goals (xG)
1.35
Newcastle
vs
1.61
Manchester City
Markets
BTTS60.8%
Over 0.593.2%
Over 1.581.0%
Over 2.556.7%
Over 3.534.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.8%
1-2
9.1%
2-1
7.6%
0-1
6.8%
0-0
6.8%
0-2
6.7%
2-2
6.1%
1-0
5.5%
1-3
4.8%
2-0
4.7%
0-3
3.6%
3-1
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).