Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →42.5%
Farense
31.6%
Draw
25.9%
Estrela
Expected Goals (xG)
1.18
Farense
vs
0.86
Estrela
Markets
BTTS40.7%
Over 0.586.1%
Over 1.561.2%
Over 2.533.3%
Over 3.515.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.6%
1-1
14.0%
0-0
13.9%
0-1
10.4%
2-0
9.1%
2-1
7.8%
1-2
5.7%
0-2
4.8%
3-0
3.6%
2-2
3.3%
3-1
3.1%
1-3
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).