Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →19.1%
Freiburg
22.3%
Draw
58.6%
Dortmund
Expected Goals (xG)
1.11
Freiburg
vs
2.07
Dortmund
Markets
BTTS59.4%
Over 0.595.1%
Over 1.583.3%
Over 2.561.6%
Over 3.539.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.3%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
8.9%
0-1
7.9%
1-3
6.8%
0-3
6.1%
2-2
5.5%
2-1
5.3%
0-0
4.9%
1-0
3.9%
2-3
3.8%
1-4
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).