Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →72.7%
Burnley
21.3%
Draw
6.0%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.80
Burnley
vs
0.35
Derby
Markets
BTTS25.4%
Over 0.587.9%
Over 1.564.0%
Over 2.536.6%
Over 3.517.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
20.3%
2-0
18.8%
0-0
12.1%
3-0
11.3%
1-1
7.9%
2-1
6.6%
4-0
5.1%
3-1
4.0%
0-1
3.5%
5-0
1.8%
4-1
1.8%
1-2
1.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).