Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →24.6%
Carlisle
22.7%
Draw
52.7%
Swindon
Expected Goals (xG)
1.11
Carlisle
vs
1.74
Swindon
Markets
BTTS54.8%
Over 0.594.7%
Over 1.577.3%
Over 2.554.3%
Over 3.532.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.7%
0-1
10.5%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
8.8%
1-0
6.9%
2-1
6.2%
1-3
5.6%
2-2
5.4%
0-0
5.3%
0-3
5.1%
2-0
3.6%
2-3
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).