Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →80.6%
Burnley
16.1%
Draw
3.3%
Luton
Expected Goals (xG)
2.10
Burnley
vs
0.26
Luton
Markets
BTTS20.8%
Over 0.590.2%
Over 1.568.8%
Over 2.542.1%
Over 3.521.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
20.7%
1-0
19.3%
3-0
14.5%
0-0
9.8%
4-0
7.6%
1-1
5.6%
2-1
5.5%
3-1
3.8%
5-0
3.2%
0-1
2.1%
4-1
2.0%
5-1
0.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).