Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →23.9%
Carlisle
25.0%
Draw
51.1%
Notts County
Expected Goals (xG)
0.94
Carlisle
vs
1.51
Notts County
Markets
BTTS47.1%
Over 0.591.9%
Over 1.569.8%
Over 2.544.4%
Over 3.523.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
13.5%
1-1
11.8%
0-2
9.8%
1-2
9.3%
1-0
8.6%
0-0
8.1%
2-1
5.8%
0-3
5.0%
1-3
4.7%
2-2
4.4%
2-0
3.8%
2-3
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).