Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →37.4%
Bristol City
31.3%
Draw
31.4%
Stoke
Expected Goals (xG)
1.16
Bristol City
vs
1.04
Stoke
Markets
BTTS45.6%
Over 0.587.9%
Over 1.565.8%
Over 2.537.9%
Over 3.518.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.5%
0-0
12.1%
1-0
11.7%
0-1
10.4%
2-1
7.8%
2-0
7.4%
1-2
7.0%
0-2
6.0%
2-2
4.1%
3-1
3.0%
3-0
2.9%
1-3
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).