Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →57.6%
Coventry
23.0%
Draw
19.4%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
2.01
Coventry
vs
1.10
Derby
Markets
BTTS58.5%
Over 0.594.7%
Over 1.582.4%
Over 2.559.9%
Over 3.537.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.0%
1-0
8.2%
3-1
6.6%
3-0
6.0%
2-2
5.4%
1-2
5.4%
0-0
5.3%
0-1
4.1%
3-2
3.6%
4-1
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).