Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →6.8%
Valladolid
12.4%
Draw
80.8%
Villarreal
Expected Goals (xG)
0.77
Valladolid
vs
2.93
Villarreal
Markets
BTTS51.1%
Over 0.597.4%
Over 1.588.5%
Over 2.571.5%
Over 3.550.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
10.6%
0-3
10.3%
1-2
8.2%
1-3
8.0%
0-4
7.6%
0-1
7.1%
1-4
5.9%
1-1
5.7%
0-5
4.4%
1-5
3.4%
2-2
3.2%
2-3
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).