Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →52.3%
Famalicao
29.1%
Draw
18.6%
Nacional
Expected Goals (xG)
1.42
Famalicao
vs
0.74
Nacional
Markets
BTTS40.7%
Over 0.587.6%
Over 1.564.6%
Over 2.536.8%
Over 3.517.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.4%
1-1
13.1%
0-0
12.4%
2-0
11.6%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
7.6%
3-0
5.5%
1-2
4.5%
3-1
4.1%
2-2
3.2%
0-2
3.2%
4-0
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).