Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →79.9%
Leeds
14.7%
Draw
5.4%
Luton
Expected Goals (xG)
2.49
Leeds
vs
0.53
Luton
Markets
BTTS38.2%
Over 0.594.7%
Over 1.580.9%
Over 2.558.2%
Over 3.535.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
15.1%
3-0
12.6%
1-0
11.7%
2-1
8.0%
4-0
7.8%
1-1
6.9%
3-1
6.7%
0-0
5.3%
4-1
4.2%
5-0
3.9%
2-2
2.1%
0-1
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).