⚽ FootballData
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DHT: 22CSV

06 Apr 2019

Derby

Away

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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40.6%
Brentford
29.4%
Draw
30.1%
Derby

Expected Goals (xG)

1.31

Brentford

vs
1.09

Derby

Markets

BTTS49.3%
Over 0.589.9%
Over 1.570.0%
Over 2.542.9%
Over 3.522.0%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
13.9%
1-0
11.0%
0-0
10.1%
0-1
9.0%
2-1
8.5%
2-0
7.8%
1-2
7.1%
0-2
5.4%
2-2
4.6%
3-1
3.7%
3-0
3.4%
1-3
2.6%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).