Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →25.0%
Vallecano
30.9%
Draw
44.1%
Ath Madrid
Expected Goals (xG)
0.82
Vallecano
vs
1.19
Ath Madrid
Markets
BTTS39.4%
Over 0.586.2%
Over 1.560.1%
Over 2.532.6%
Over 3.514.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
15.5%
0-0
13.8%
1-1
13.5%
1-0
10.5%
0-2
9.5%
1-2
7.8%
2-1
5.4%
2-0
4.5%
0-3
3.8%
2-2
3.2%
1-3
3.1%
3-1
1.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).