Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →35.1%
Reading
30.3%
Draw
34.7%
Luton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.18
Reading
vs
1.17
Luton
Markets
BTTS48.8%
Over 0.589.3%
Over 1.569.0%
Over 2.541.6%
Over 3.521.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.3%
0-0
10.7%
1-0
10.2%
0-1
10.1%
2-1
7.7%
1-2
7.7%
2-0
6.6%
0-2
6.5%
2-2
4.5%
3-1
3.0%
1-3
3.0%
3-0
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).