Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →72.3%
Derby
17.9%
Draw
9.8%
Cheltenham
Expected Goals (xG)
1.97
Derby
vs
0.53
Cheltenham
Markets
BTTS34.8%
Over 0.592.5%
Over 1.570.6%
Over 2.545.6%
Over 3.524.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.9%
2-0
15.9%
3-0
10.4%
2-1
8.5%
1-1
7.9%
0-0
7.5%
3-1
5.6%
4-0
5.1%
0-1
5.1%
4-1
2.7%
1-2
2.3%
2-2
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).